传染病随机模型的全局敏感性分析：以黄热病毒在美洲的重新出现为例

by Nate Kornetzke, Helen J. Wearing

Emerging infectious diseases are a persistent public health threat that challenge deterministic, mechanistic modeling approaches. Because outbreaks initially start with a low number of infected hosts, their dynamics are highly stochastic, making traditional deterministic methods, e.g., ordinary differential equations, unable to qualitatively or quantitatively capture the transmission dynamics. In place, stochastic models are used, such as Markov chain models, but these models present their own challenges. Often, to infer a quantity of interest with stochastic models, we need to sample the model’s distribution many times over, introducing an additional source of noise to our analysis. This additional noise makes the inference of our quantity of interest more difficult and computationally expensive. Here, we show how novel tools from the field of uncertainty quantification can be used to efficiently separate these two channels of noise, allowing us to make rigorous statistical inferences about processes important for disease emergence. We illustrate these techniques with a model of yellow fever virus spillover in the Americas, a virus that has seen rapid re-emergence amongst multiple hosts and vectors in South America over the last decade. We show that only a handful of parameters’ uncertainties greatly affect variation in cumulative disease incidence. In particular, uncertainty in patch connectivity and non-human primate latency has the greatest impact on the variation of cumulative disease incidence of yellow fever virus across patches.